发表状态 | 已发表Published |
题名 | Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model |
作者 | |
发表日期 | 2024-09-01 |
发表期刊 | IJID Regions
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ISSN/eISSN | 2772-7076 |
卷号 | 12 |
摘要 | Objectives: Vaccination and the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant changed the fate of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is very challenging to estimate the number of lives saved by vaccination given the multiple doses of vaccination, the time-varying nature of transmissibility, the waning of immunity, and the presence of immune evasion. Methods: We established a S-S-E-I-T-D-R model to simulate the number of lives saved by vaccination in six states in the United States (U.S.) from March 5, 2020, to March 23, 2023. The cumulative number of deaths were estimated under three vaccination scenarios based on two assumptions. Additionally, immune evasion by the Omicron and loss of protection afforded by vaccination or infection were considered. Results: The number of deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccinations (including three doses) ranged from 0.154-0.295% of the total population across six states. The number of deaths averted by the third dose ranged from 0.008-0.017% of the total population. Conclusions: Our estimate of death averted by COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S. was largely in line with an official estimate (at a level of 0.15-0.20% of the total population). We found that the additional contribution of the third dose was small but significant. |
关键词 | COVID-19 Epidemic model Omicron variant Vaccination campaign |
DOI | 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100390 |
URL | 查看来源 |
收录类别 | ESCI |
语种 | 英语English |
WOS研究方向 | Infectious Diseases |
WOS类目 | Infectious Diseases |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001287901900001 |
Scopus入藏号 | 2-s2.0-85197038777 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | https://repository.uic.edu.cn/handle/39GCC9TT/11724 |
专题 | 理工科技学院 |
通讯作者 | Peng, Zhihang |
作者单位 | 1.School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,China 2.Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College,Zhuhai,China 3.School of Mathematics and Statistics,Huaiyin Normal University,Huaian,China 4.Department of Applied Mathematics,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong,Hong Kong 5.Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,China 6.National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yin, Yi,Tang, Shuhan,Li, Qionget al. Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model[J]. IJID Regions, 2024, 12. |
APA | Yin, Yi., Tang, Shuhan., Li, Qiong., Zhou, Sijia., Ma, Yuhang., .. & Peng, Zhihang. (2024). Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model. IJID Regions, 12. |
MLA | Yin, Yi,et al."Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model". IJID Regions 12(2024). |
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