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题名Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model
作者
发表日期2024-09-01
发表期刊IJID Regions
ISSN/eISSN2772-7076
卷号12
摘要

Objectives: Vaccination and the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant changed the fate of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is very challenging to estimate the number of lives saved by vaccination given the multiple doses of vaccination, the time-varying nature of transmissibility, the waning of immunity, and the presence of immune evasion. Methods: We established a S-S-E-I-T-D-R model to simulate the number of lives saved by vaccination in six states in the United States (U.S.) from March 5, 2020, to March 23, 2023. The cumulative number of deaths were estimated under three vaccination scenarios based on two assumptions. Additionally, immune evasion by the Omicron and loss of protection afforded by vaccination or infection were considered. Results: The number of deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccinations (including three doses) ranged from 0.154-0.295% of the total population across six states. The number of deaths averted by the third dose ranged from 0.008-0.017% of the total population. Conclusions: Our estimate of death averted by COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S. was largely in line with an official estimate (at a level of 0.15-0.20% of the total population). We found that the additional contribution of the third dose was small but significant.

关键词COVID-19 Epidemic model Omicron variant Vaccination campaign
DOI10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100390
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收录类别ESCI
语种英语English
WOS研究方向Infectious Diseases
WOS类目Infectious Diseases
WOS记录号WOS:001287901900001
Scopus入藏号2-s2.0-85197038777
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符https://repository.uic.edu.cn/handle/39GCC9TT/11724
专题理工科技学院
通讯作者Peng, Zhihang
作者单位
1.School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,China
2.Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College,Zhuhai,China
3.School of Mathematics and Statistics,Huaiyin Normal University,Huaian,China
4.Department of Applied Mathematics,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong,Hong Kong
5.Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,China
6.National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Yin, Yi,Tang, Shuhan,Li, Qionget al. Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model[J]. IJID Regions, 2024, 12.
APA Yin, Yi., Tang, Shuhan., Li, Qiong., Zhou, Sijia., Ma, Yuhang., .. & Peng, Zhihang. (2024). Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model. IJID Regions, 12.
MLA Yin, Yi,et al."Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model". IJID Regions 12(2024).
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