发表状态 | 已发表Published |
题名 | Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China |
作者 | |
发表日期 | 2024-12-01 |
发表期刊 | Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models
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ISSN/eISSN | 2731-4235 |
卷号 | 2024期号:1 |
摘要 | Background: After abandoning the zero-case strategy for COVID-19 in December 2022 in mainland China, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (HKSAR) has undergone an anticipated surge of the prevalence of COVID-19, as well as other influenzas, such as influenza A/H1N1, influenza A/H3N2, and influenza B as well. Noteworthy, people are usually concerned about the mutual influences between two families of respiratory viruses, like co-circulation or co-infection. Methods: We fitted a unified model to weekly reported severe COVID-19 cases and the confirmed influenza A laboratory cases in HKSAR, respectively, using the R package POMP to obtain the best fitting and parameter estimates. The reconstructed transmission rates of the COVID-19 (/influenza A) versus the weekly reported influenza A (/COVID-19) confirmations between April 2022 and April 2024 were also compared. Results: Our numerical results suggest that influenza confirmations remained either at a very low level or were absent before 2023, while starting from 2023, the influenza epidemic re-emerged as expected because of the resumption of international travels and other social communications. Besides, the peak of influenza cases in April 2023 favored the form of the peak of COVID-19 between May–June, 2023. Additionally, during the sudden abolishment of the zero-case policy in mainland China (December 2022 to January 2023), we estimated that there were approximately 381 cases imported from mainland China into HKSAR. Conclusions: We estimated the potential number of imported COVID-19 severe cases from mainland China to Hong Kong and revealed some potential population-level interference between the two families of respiratory viruses. |
关键词 | COVID-19 Hong Kong Influenza Mathematical modelling Severe cases Zero-case policy |
DOI | 10.1186/s13662-024-03830-7 |
URL | 查看来源 |
收录类别 | SCIE |
语种 | 英语English |
WOS研究方向 | Mathematics |
WOS类目 | Mathematics, Applied ; Mathematics |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001303225300001 |
Scopus入藏号 | 2-s2.0-85202923267 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | https://repository.uic.edu.cn/handle/39GCC9TT/12066 |
专题 | 理工科技学院 |
通讯作者 | He, Daihai |
作者单位 | 1.Department of Applied Mathematics,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,100872,Hong Kong 2.School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,211166,China 3.Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College,Zhuhai,519087,China 4.Division of Infectious disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,102206,China 5.National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,102206,China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wen, Li,Yin, Yi,Li, Qionget al. Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China[J]. Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, 2024, 2024(1). |
APA | Wen, Li, Yin, Yi, Li, Qiong, Peng, Zhihang, & He, Daihai. (2024). Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China. Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, 2024(1). |
MLA | Wen, Li,et al."Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China". Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models 2024.1(2024). |
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