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题名Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China
作者
发表日期2024-12-01
发表期刊Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models
ISSN/eISSN2731-4235
卷号2024期号:1
摘要

Background: After abandoning the zero-case strategy for COVID-19 in December 2022 in mainland China, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (HKSAR) has undergone an anticipated surge of the prevalence of COVID-19, as well as other influenzas, such as influenza A/H1N1, influenza A/H3N2, and influenza B as well. Noteworthy, people are usually concerned about the mutual influences between two families of respiratory viruses, like co-circulation or co-infection. Methods: We fitted a unified model to weekly reported severe COVID-19 cases and the confirmed influenza A laboratory cases in HKSAR, respectively, using the R package POMP to obtain the best fitting and parameter estimates. The reconstructed transmission rates of the COVID-19 (/influenza A) versus the weekly reported influenza A (/COVID-19) confirmations between April 2022 and April 2024 were also compared. Results: Our numerical results suggest that influenza confirmations remained either at a very low level or were absent before 2023, while starting from 2023, the influenza epidemic re-emerged as expected because of the resumption of international travels and other social communications. Besides, the peak of influenza cases in April 2023 favored the form of the peak of COVID-19 between May–June, 2023. Additionally, during the sudden abolishment of the zero-case policy in mainland China (December 2022 to January 2023), we estimated that there were approximately 381 cases imported from mainland China into HKSAR. Conclusions: We estimated the potential number of imported COVID-19 severe cases from mainland China to Hong Kong and revealed some potential population-level interference between the two families of respiratory viruses.

关键词COVID-19 Hong Kong Influenza Mathematical modelling Severe cases Zero-case policy
DOI10.1186/s13662-024-03830-7
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收录类别SCIE
语种英语English
WOS研究方向Mathematics
WOS类目Mathematics, Applied ; Mathematics
WOS记录号WOS:001303225300001
Scopus入藏号2-s2.0-85202923267
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被引频次:1[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符https://repository.uic.edu.cn/handle/39GCC9TT/12066
专题理工科技学院
通讯作者He, Daihai
作者单位
1.Department of Applied Mathematics,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,100872,Hong Kong
2.School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,211166,China
3.Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College,Zhuhai,519087,China
4.Division of Infectious disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,102206,China
5.National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,102206,China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wen, Li,Yin, Yi,Li, Qionget al. Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China[J]. Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, 2024, 2024(1).
APA Wen, Li, Yin, Yi, Li, Qiong, Peng, Zhihang, & He, Daihai. (2024). Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China. Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, 2024(1).
MLA Wen, Li,et al."Modeling the co-circulation of influenza and COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China". Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models 2024.1(2024).
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