科研成果详情

Purpose: China is not only the biggest mutton consumer, but also the top mutton importer in the world. China’s urban households are becoming the key driving force behind a surge in mutton consumption. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of mutton demand in urban China. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 32,910 urban households across six provinces and autonomous regions, an inverse hyperbolic sine (IHS) double-hurdle model is estimated, by maximum likelihood estimation, to reveal the determinants of mutton consumption-at-home. Findings: The empirical results indicate that, first, household income has a positive effect on mutton consumption, and higher income households have a higher income elasticity; second, wet weather increases probability, but reduces conditional level and unconditional level; finally, minority group households consume more mutton than Han group households. Practical implications: It is necessary for policymakers to develop a long-term outlook in relation to the increase of China’s mutton appetite and to shift from a domestic perspective to a global one and develop diversified import strategies. Furthermore, policymakers require to make a practicable emergency preplan for tackling short-term agglomeration of demand for mutton, attributed to festivals, and religious events of a minority ethnic group. Originality/value: This is a major work based on a large sample of 32,910 urban households conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This paper uses an IHS double-hurdle model to quantify the determinants of mutton consumption; it sheds light on the climatic, regional, and ethnic characteristics of mutton consumption in urban China.