科研成果详情

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the primary natural disaster causing port disruptions, yet their impacts on global maritime transport remain largely unknown. This paper develops a framework to assess the resilience of global liner shipping network (GLSN) to TCs, focusing on path redundancy. The framework considers both direct and indirect impacts of port disruptions on GLSN performance in TC scenarios. We demonstrate this framework through case studies under historical and stress-test TC scenarios in the Western North Pacific region. Results show that the GLSN can be quite resilient in typical or mild-stress scenarios, but the increasing decline in its resilience under higher stress levels signals significant risks when facing with extreme scenarios. Those least resilient countries under mild stress turn out to be the same countries exhibiting least resilience under severe stress, most of which are SIDS countries. This research has implications for the design of resilient maritime transport networks.