科研成果详情

为提高灾害发生后应急物资的供给能力，降低政府单独储备应急物资时承担的风险及成本，文章设计了一个基于政府主导的政企联合储备应急物资模型，并对合作中的两个关键问题——物资储备量及采购定价进行了研究.在考虑政企双方同时参与现货市场的情形下，文章通过逆序推导法给出了企业最优储备量决策及政府最优采购定价，并与政府单独储备模式进行了对比分析，发现联合储备模式能够有效降低政府采购成本，提高企业收益，实现双方合作共赢.此外，文章还进一步分析了灾害事件发生概率，政府自身储备量等因素对政企双方决策，各自成本收益及增减变化的影响，发现随着灾害事件发生概率和现货市场采购价格的增加，联合储备模式的优越性越发明显，而过多的政府自身储备量及企业参与现货市场的行为则会阻碍企业参与合作的积极性，削弱联合储备的优越性.文章的研究为政府联合企业开展应急物资储备工作提供了操作策略和指导法则.

In order to improve the supply capacity of emergency supplies after disasters and reduce the risk and cost of governments' independent reserve of emergency supplies, the paper designs a model of a government and an enterprise joint reserving emergency supplies based on the government's guidance, and studies two key issues in the cooperation-supply reserve decision and purchase pricing. In the case of considering both the government and the enterprise participating in the spot market at the same time, the paper gives the optimal reserve decision of the enterprise and the optimal purchase pricing of the government through backward induction, and makes a comparative analysis with the independent reserve mode of the government. It is found that the joint reserve model can effectively reduce the government's procurement cost and improve the enterprise's revenue, which achieves win-win cooperation between the two sides. In addition, the paper further analyzes the impact of disaster event probability, the government's own reserves and other factors on the decision-making of both the government and the enterprise, their respective cost-benefit and changes. It is found that with the increase of disaster event probability and spot market procurement price, the superiority of the joint reserve model is more and more obvious, while the excessive government's own reserves and the behavior of enterprises participating in the spot market will hinder the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the cooperation and weaken the superiority of the joint reserve. The paper provides the operation strategies and guidances for governments cooperating with enterprises to carry out the emergency supplies reserve.