发表状态 | 已发表Published |
题名 | Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century |
作者 | |
发表日期 | 2018-06-01 |
发表期刊 | Natural Hazards
![]() |
ISSN/eISSN | 0921-030X |
卷号 | 92期号:2页码:1011-1038 |
摘要 | The adverse impact of climate change-associated extreme weather events is becoming more significant globally, particularly the flood impact on coastal and low-lying areas such as the Pearl River Delta (PRD). This study applied the framework to obtain order-of-magnitude estimations of human damages from future flood disasters caused by sea level rise for Hong Kong and the PRD region in southern China by 2050 and 2100. The assessment framework employs statistical analysis to combine global historical flood damage data with national development indicators and local sea level characteristics to assess the potential damages. Following the terminology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events, the three determinants of disaster risk (climate extreme, exposure and vulnerability) are quantified in our framework. It is found that without adaptation, sea level rise will significantly increase the flood risk in this region. For instance, in the PRD region, with a 75-cm sea level rise by 2100, the deaths and displacements from a 100-year flood are estimated to be around 200 and 1.5 million, respectively. Our results provide motivation for regional authorities to adopt a long-term adaptation plan to reduce exposure and vulnerability to flooding, thus managing the risks in this region. Furthermore, with appropriate datasets available, our framework allows the assessment of the effects of flooding in other areas and/or the quantitative evaluation of potential losses from other climate-related hazards such as heat waves. |
关键词 | Climate change Damage assessment Flood risk Order-of-magnitude estimation Statistical data analysis |
DOI | 10.1007/s11069-018-3236-9 |
URL | 查看来源 |
收录类别 | SCIE |
语种 | 英语English |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000432329700021 |
Scopus入藏号 | 2-s2.0-85042600216 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | https://repository.uic.edu.cn/handle/39GCC9TT/6310 |
专题 | 北师香港浸会大学 |
通讯作者 | Yu, Qiwei |
作者单位 | 1.Atmospheric Research Center,HKUST Fok Ying Tung Graduate School,Nansha IT Park,Nansha,511458,China 2.Division of Environment,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Kowloon,Clear Water Bay,Hong Kong 3.Department of Statistics,United International College,Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University,Zhuhai,China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yu, Qiwei,Lau, Alexis K.H.,Tsang, Kang T.et al. Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century[J]. Natural Hazards, 2018, 92(2): 1011-1038. |
APA | Yu, Qiwei, Lau, Alexis K.H., Tsang, Kang T., & Fung, Jimmy C.H. (2018). Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century. Natural Hazards, 92(2), 1011-1038. |
MLA | Yu, Qiwei,et al."Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century". Natural Hazards 92.2(2018): 1011-1038. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论