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题名Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century
作者
发表日期2018-06-01
发表期刊Natural Hazards
ISSN/eISSN0921-030X
卷号92期号:2页码:1011-1038
摘要

The adverse impact of climate change-associated extreme weather events is becoming more significant globally, particularly the flood impact on coastal and low-lying areas such as the Pearl River Delta (PRD). This study applied the framework to obtain order-of-magnitude estimations of human damages from future flood disasters caused by sea level rise for Hong Kong and the PRD region in southern China by 2050 and 2100. The assessment framework employs statistical analysis to combine global historical flood damage data with national development indicators and local sea level characteristics to assess the potential damages. Following the terminology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events, the three determinants of disaster risk (climate extreme, exposure and vulnerability) are quantified in our framework. It is found that without adaptation, sea level rise will significantly increase the flood risk in this region. For instance, in the PRD region, with a 75-cm sea level rise by 2100, the deaths and displacements from a 100-year flood are estimated to be around 200 and 1.5 million, respectively. Our results provide motivation for regional authorities to adopt a long-term adaptation plan to reduce exposure and vulnerability to flooding, thus managing the risks in this region. Furthermore, with appropriate datasets available, our framework allows the assessment of the effects of flooding in other areas and/or the quantitative evaluation of potential losses from other climate-related hazards such as heat waves.

关键词Climate change Damage assessment Flood risk Order-of-magnitude estimation Statistical data analysis
DOI10.1007/s11069-018-3236-9
URL查看来源
收录类别SCIE
语种英语English
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号WOS:000432329700021
Scopus入藏号2-s2.0-85042600216
引用统计
被引频次:15[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符https://repository.uic.edu.cn/handle/39GCC9TT/6310
专题北师香港浸会大学
通讯作者Yu, Qiwei
作者单位
1.Atmospheric Research Center,HKUST Fok Ying Tung Graduate School,Nansha IT Park,Nansha,511458,China
2.Division of Environment,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Kowloon,Clear Water Bay,Hong Kong
3.Department of Statistics,United International College,Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University,Zhuhai,China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Yu, Qiwei,Lau, Alexis K.H.,Tsang, Kang T.et al. Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century[J]. Natural Hazards, 2018, 92(2): 1011-1038.
APA Yu, Qiwei, Lau, Alexis K.H., Tsang, Kang T., & Fung, Jimmy C.H. (2018). Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century. Natural Hazards, 92(2), 1011-1038.
MLA Yu, Qiwei,et al."Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century". Natural Hazards 92.2(2018): 1011-1038.
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